The ‘Jasmine Revolution’ that started in Tunisia on 17 December 2010 and resulted in the Regime change by peoples’ power, has also spread into the other regions in North Africa. Egypt followed suit thereafter and President Hosni Mubarak also had to demit office on 11 February 2011 after putting up a stiff but ineffectual resistance. The winds of change have also been witnessed in the Arabian Peninsula. Protests have also commenced in Yemen and Bahrain though the situation at present has not reached alarming proportions in these countries. However, there is no denying the fact that the entire neighbourhood is in a state of heightened tension on account of anticipated social turmoil and political upheaval.
While regime change in Tunisia and Egypt was accomplished by peoples’ power, largely through peaceful means with limited casualties and collateral damage, the situation in Libya has turned out to be quite different. Amidst reports of peaceful protests by people in different cities and the Government forces resorting to force and live firing to quell these protests, the situation in Libya has assumed dangerous connotations for the local citizenry and the large expatriate population. With conflicting claims of Human Rights excesses by security forces and counter-claims of there being no peaceful protests, but attacks on Libyan security forces and instillations by armed gangs being reported, the exact situation on the ground remains unclear.
What however is clearly visible as a consequence of the Libyan turmoil is the human displacement issue of enormous scale. Refugees and foreign nationals are crossing over to neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt in order to escape from the worsening situation in the country. Many foreigners are thronging the Tripoli airport and the seaport of Benghazi, seeking a way out of the strife ridden country. The foreigners largely comprise the Chinese, Indian, South Asian and the South-East Asian Diaspora, which has been working in the Libyan oil and other industrial sectors. While the United Nations Security Council has imposed sanctions against Libya vide its resolution 1970 on 26 February 2011, the human suffering of the foreigners continues to remain a matter of grave concern to the relevant countries. To get a sense of numbers, it is reported that more than 35000 Chinese and about 18000 Indians were in Libya when the unrest commenced.
While the UN Security Council was in the process of imposing sanctions, India and China both announced that they will undertake the evacuation of their personal on war footing. The airlift by both the countries commenced on the same day and India has got permission to operate three commercial jets per day till 12 March 2011. China is also conducting air evacuation using its state airlines. However, the air evacuation effort will not be adequate enough considering the numbers involved.
Both, India and China have dispatched their naval ships towards Benghazi to augment the entire exercise. China diverted its 4000 tonnes missile frigate Xuzhou (530) from its location in the Gulf of Aden. It may be recalled the Seventh task force of the PLA Navy comprising two missile frigates and a replenishment tanker has been carrying out escort mission off the Arabian Peninsula for the last three months as part of its continuing anti-piracy deployment. Since the distance between Bab-al-Mandab and Benghazi in Libya is about 2500 miles – a sailing duration of about five days at a speed of 20 knots – the Chinese frigate must already be in the Libyan waters.
China has also pressed four of its IL 76 military transport aircraft into service to speed up the evacuation process. The Chinese IL 76s have been air lifting its citizens to Khartoum in Sudan since 28 February 2011. Though the exact contribution of the Chinese frigate in Libyan waters is not known, it could possibly be escorting the commercial ferries pulling out its citizens from Benghazi. The ship itself should be able to transport up to 200 persons for short distance at one time.
India also dispatched its missile destroyer, INS Mysore and the largest landing ship INS Jalashwa on 26 February 2011. Since the distance from Mumbai to Benghazi is about 4500 miles, the ships are expected to arrive on location on 09 March 2011 and join the ongoing evacuation of the Indian citizens from the sea route. Currently the Indian Government is carrying out this activity by hiring private ferries from the region.
Capable of carrying up to 1000 troops with their equipment, INS Jalashwa will easily be able to ferry about 2000 personnel for short duration voyages out of Libya. INS Mysore, in addition to its escort and protection capabilities, should also be able to accommodate 250-300 persons for short duration sea passage, possibly to Malta or Alexandria in Egypt. India, like China, has also deployed two IL 76 military transport aircraft of the Indian Air Force to supplement the air lift of its citizens.
It is pertinent to mention that the Indian Navy, in its Indian Maritime Doctrine 2009, has very clearly enunciated the Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) as one of its benign roles. The Indian Navy has always participated in such missions and has discharged its humanitarian and social duties fastidiously and efficiently. The two recent instances wherein the Indian Naval showcased its capability are the HADR mission in the neighborhood countries post the 2004 Tsunami and Operation ‘Sukoon’ – a sea lift and evacuation mission of Indian and friendly south Asian countries’ citizens from Lebanon in July 2006.
China has also included the non-traditional security activities into the role and charter of its Armed Forces. According to the latest white paper on China’s National Defense – 2008, the PLA has also been tasked to carry out counter-terrorism, stability maintenance, emergency rescue and international peace-keeping tasks, instead of largely defensive and internal roles earlier assigned to it. Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) form an important form of applying military force. The PLA Navy has also widened its scope of operations in line with the MOOTW concept, to include integrated offshore operations, conduct of operations in distant waters and for countering non-traditional security threats.
While the Indian, Chinese and the navies of other countries have committed their assets for the sea lift and evacuation missions, the political situation in Libya continues to remain precarious. The UN Security Council has passed a very stringent resolution against Libya and the US has also imposed unilateral sanctions. The British Prime Minister has suggested declaring the Libyan air space as a ‘no fly zone’ after the Libyan Air Force jets were seen to conduct firing and bombing in their own territory, presumably against rebel forces. The presence of the Royal Navy ships in the vicinity, though currently for humanitarian related missions, cannot be wished away. The diversion of US ships forms the Fifth Fleet into the Mediterranean Sea and the increasingly ominous signals emanating from the US administration have the potential for causing further turmoil in the region. In such an event, it will indeed be instructive to see the kind of roles that the warships of China, India and similarly placed countries will discharge.
The real challenge however will be for the disparate warships to adapt to the volatile environment in the region, fulfill their assigned benign tasks and return without getting involved in the politico- social conflict in and around Libya. It is worthwhile to bear in mind that Libya was the 18th largest supplier of crude oil to India in the year 2009-10 at a little more than 1.1 million Tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 26 percent.
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About the Author:
Commander Kamlesh Kumar Agnihotri is a Research Fellow with the China Cell of the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. The views expressed in the paper are solely his own and do not reflect the views of the Indian Navy or the Foundation. The Author can be reached at kkagnihotri@maritimeindia.org
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