SINO-US ‘SHADOW BOXING’ IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND YELLOW SEA

Towards the end of August, the US and South Korea on one hand and China on the other, have announced the conduct of naval exercises in the Yellow Sea and the adjoining waters, in assertion of their maritime rights and interests in the region.  These US – China announcements are the logical follow up of the sequence of events which commenced with the sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan on March 26, 2010, killing 46 sailors and the subsequent regional turbulence that peaked in Hanoi at the ARF meet.

The latest Chinese assertion was preceded by a strong riposte by Major General Luo Yuan, Deputy Secretary-General of the Academy of Military Sciences, in a PLA Daily editorial on August 12, 2010, terming the US naval manoeuvers in the Yellow Sea and South China Sea as ‘flagrant provocation’. This PLA Daily editorial piece was presumably in response to the US plans to again dispatch a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the Yellow Sea and a report by South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency which quoted Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, as stating that “the carrier operated up there last October, and it is going to operate up there again”.

This rather tersely worded editorial was part of a constant barrage of articles in the Chinese media since the reports of US intent to deploy its nuclear powered Carrier USS George Washington for a joint US-South Korean naval exercise, first appeared in June 2010. The Chinese foreign office at that time expressed serious concern over such a contingency stating that “… the relevant parties should refrain from doing things that might escalate tension and harm the security interests of the countries in the region….” The situation eased somewhat when the joint exercises were initially postponed till after the issuance of the UN Security Council Statement on the Cheonan incident and thereafter the exercises were relocated to the Sea of Japan. However the appearance of USS George Washington in Vietnamese waters, ostensibly to commemorate the 15^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries fanned the underlying tensions again. The chronology of important events in the region since the US and South Korea announced their intention to conduct joint maritime exercise in the Yellow Sea, are enumerated below in order to give a snapshot view of the volatility of the situation: –

• June 2010 – Chinese media and foreign office expressed grave concern over the exercise in the Yellow Sea and participation of the US aircraft carrier therein.
• End June – US-South Korea joint Exercise postponed.
• July 05-07 – PLA Navy carried out a live fire Maritime Exercise in the Yellow Sea.
• July 09 – UN Security Council Presidential statement on ‘Cheonan’ sinking issued.
• July 23 – Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State stated during the ARF meet in Vietnam that the US has “national interest in the freedom of navigation and open access to Asia’s maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea”.
• July 25 – The Chinese Foreign Minister responded by exhorting the US not to internationalize a bilateral issue between China and the individual ASEAN nations.
• July 27 – China carried out two more exercises in the vicinity of the Yellow Sea – one a land based long range rocket firing by Nanjing military Command and the other involving satellite communication facilities by the Jinan Military Command.
• July 25-28 – US-S. Korea joint exercise ‘Invincible Spirit’ was conducted in the Sea of Japan.
• August 06 – Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell announced that the US warships will conduct exercises in the Yellow Sea in near future.
• August 08-10 – US carrier USS George Washington carried out naval exercise with the Vietnamese Navy in waters off Vietnam and also hosted the Vietnamese Government and military officials on board. Destroyer USS John McCain visited Da Nang port in Vietnam.
• August 12 – Chinese Major General published an editorial on the Yellow sea issues.
• August 29 – Chinese North Sea Fleet announced the conduct of maritime exercise off Qingdao from September 01-04, 2010.
• August 31 – US and South Korea announced the conduct of joint maritime exercise in the Yellow Sea, closer to the Korean peninsula from September 05-09, 2010.

The sequence of above events over the last four months have kept the Western Pacific ‘pot’ simmering and it is felt that more such events will unfold in the near future. This exigency is likely to unfold since the PLA Navy, as an instrument of rising Chinese power seeks to create space and expand its maritime area of influence farther into the Pacific Ocean. It is instructive that General Ma Xiaotian, the Deputy Chief of PLA General Staff cited three issues which were obstructing the smooth progression of the China-US military relations, namely: US arms supply to Taiwan; reconnaissance activities of US aircraft and ships in the airspace and sea space in the Chinese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ); and the provisions of the Defense Authorization Law of 2000, which limit US-China military relations.

To specifically address the second issue, China has concurrently been displaying its assertiveness in the East and the South China Seas. On March 8, 2009, the US Navy surveillance ship, USS Impeccable which was conducting military survey about 75 miles south of Hainan Island, was reportedly harassed by some Chinese vessels. A similar type of incident was reported against another US research ship USS Victorious in May 2009 in the Yellow Sea. China also reiterated its indisputable sovereignty over a major portion of the South China Sea in a communication to the United Nations Secretary-General on May 07, 2009 stating that China “enjoyed sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the islands in the South China Sea and the adjacent waters”.  It also imposed a general fishing ban in the area with effect from May 16, 2009 and sent eight ‘fisheries patrol vessels’ to enforce the same.

These Chinese initiatives appear to clearly impinge upon the unfettered freedom of the Seas hitherto enjoyed by the US Navy, the visible instrument of Uncle Sam as the sole super power and go against the basic tenets articulated in various US strategic documents. The US Navy’s ‘Cooperative Strategy for 21^st Century Sea Power, 2007’ seeks to “continuously posture credible combat power in the Western Pacific with a view to deter and dissuade potential adversaries and peer competitors”. China obviously fits the bill as the ‘potential adversary and peer competitor’ in the Western Pacific Ocean. In line with the above strategic direction, the US ‘Naval Operations Concept, 2010’ envisages “…continued deployment of US Carrier Strike Group (CSG), Amphibious   Readiness Group (ARG) and Marines’ Expeditionary Units (MEUs) in the Western Pacific Ocean in the foreseeable future…” The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) of 2005 directed the US Navy to deploy six aircraft carriers and 60 percent of its submarine force to the Pacific Ocean and it was stated in the CRS report to Congress in December 2009 that the US Navy had more or less met the QDR directive by deploying 31 of its 53 attack submarines and six of its 11 carriers in the Pacific Ocean in order to counter the improved Chinese military forces in the immediate future. Many of these assets have been forward-based at Japan, Guam and Hawaii while the rest remain based on the US Pacific coast. In fact, the carrier USS George Washington which has been the centre-piece of the currently tangled US-China interaction in the region, is based in Japan and is supported by up to 11 front line warships, amphibious ships, marines and US Air Force bases.

The particularly assertive articulation by the US Secretary of State and other top US military leadership in recent past can thus be presumed to flow out of the massive US Defense Forces’ presence (with the US Navy forming a major component) in the Pacific Ocean. The stated raison d’être is very much ‘to support engagement, presence and deterrence’. There are no awards for guessing as to whom the deterrent is aimed against.

The prevailing US-China dynamic in the Western Pacific is progressing in a complex maritime environment wherein the prime concern of the US revolves around the freedom of access and navigation in the international waters, while China seeks to deny that very freedom to the US and the others. The disputes over Paracel and Spratly group of islands also bring at least four of the ASEAN countries into the picture. The reported potential of underlying natural resources including oil, in the region and the Chinese actions to virtually secure the entire area for themselves, to the detriment of other regional countries’ national interests, further raises the stakes. Vietnam and the Philippines are the most affected parties and have been resorting to certain measures (though perceived to be insufficient) to stave off such overarching Chinese intentions. These countries would therefore be the best candidates to support the latest US stand vis-à-vis the South China Sea, as was evident during the July ARF meet in Hanoi. Similarly Japan and South Korea are fully supportive of the proactive US maritime stance in the East China Sea, particularly the Yellow Sea.

It is therefore considered that the last act in the ongoing turn of events in the East Asian waters is yet to be resolved, though some kind of uneasy and temporary state of equilibrium may eventually be attained in the short term. The upcoming US-South Korean joint naval exercise in the Yellow Sea, though significantly toned down due to the non-participation of the US aircraft carrier, is still likely to hurt the heightened Chinese sense of nationalism. The strong line taken by Major General Luo Yuan to the effect that: “… A country needs respect, so does a military. We will retaliate if we are offended…”, indicates that China will find it increasingly hard to retract, especially since the issue has been linked with the Chinese ‘core interests.’ With both the major players in the region advocating increasingly assertive positions, the roiled Western Pacific waters are not likely to be calmed in the near future unless one of them ‘blinks first’. Meanwhile the global community should be cognizant of the potential of this US-China ‘shadow boxing’ possibly intensifying, with likely ‘lose-lose’ results for all.

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About the Author:

Commander Kamlesh Kumar Agnihotri is a Research Fellow with the China Cell of the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. The views expressed in the paper are solely his own and do not reflect the views of the Indian Navy or the Foundation. The Author can be reached at kkagnihotri@maritimeindia.org