CHINA'S MARITIME ASSERTIVENESS: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA



Author : C.Uday Bhaskar


Introduction

Maritime infrastructure is the collective used to describe the installations and services that enable and facilitate mercantile marine activity. It covers in its ambit cost intensive elements such as ports, shipping and shipbuilding as well as service providers such as stevedores, ship chandlers etc. This paper seeks to analyze some of the more important segments of the maritime infrastructure in India and to bring out its relationship with national security.

Maritime Stake

Demographically, 66% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coastline and by some accounts one in every six jobs is related directly or indirectly to the sea. It is cheaper to transport a ton of coal 5000 miles in bulk carrier than 500 km by rail. It is, therefore, not surprising that about 90% of the global trade, by volume, is seaborne. In year 2011 this added up to 7.8 billion tons, 40% of which originated in Asia. Before the ongoing economic crisis started, it was estimated that by year 2030 global GDP would double itself with concomitant multiplication in trade volume. It is estimated that global investment in ports development today is in terms of billions of dollars, ancillary industry & support infrastructure turn over tens of billion dollars and hinterland connectivity & infrastructure development to support the throughput, albeit on non-exclusive basis, would be measurable in terms of hundreds of billion dollars.

The oceans are also a source of food for billions of people. Last year the global seafood production was 154 million metric tons of which almost 80% came from wild capture fisheries and the remainder from aquaculture. The trade was worth 125 billion dollars and the industry provided full time employment to 40 million people. Per capita consumption of seafood varies widely between regions, societies & religions; and also within the same group. Seafood is a delicacy for some but for many others it is sheer sustenance. And, it is a vital contributor in happiness & contentment of both groups.

Discoveries of soft ball sized polymetallic nodules containing nickel, manganese, cobalt, copper and traces of other metals; lying in the abysmal plains on the deep seabed have added a new dimension to the expression “ riches from the seas”. And, together with the very recent discovery of hydrothermal polymetallic sulphides containing copper, zinc, silver & gold and cobalt rich ferromanganese crusts; these have been designated “common heritage of mankind” not for any philanthropic reasons but for their sheer economic potential. A regulatory mechanism has already been drawn up and the International Seabed Authority established even though the technologies for prospecting, exploring and harvesting these economically are yet to be developed.

Over 65% of the world’s known oil reserves are in, and 40% of the world’s offshore oil production comes from the countries bordering the Indian Ocean. Jutting 1000 km into the Indian Ocean, the peninsular India sits astride the shipping lanes which host half of global containerized cargo, one third of bulk cargo and two thirds of its oil shipment.

Unlike the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, almost three quarters of trade traversing through the Indian Ocean, primarily in the form of oil and gas, belongs to states external to the region. As a result, India has a vital role to play not only for securing the sea lines of communication but also for providing logistical support to the global shipping fraternity.

This informed audience is aware that India has a coastline longer than 7500 KM with topography that varies from flat and mountainous to forests; 155,000 square KM of territorial waters that touch territorial waters of four countries and more than 2 million square KM of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that borders that of seven countries.

The Maritime Infrastructure

The elements that constitute the maritime infrastructure viz. port, shipping, shipbuilding, inland water trade and rail-road connectivity, and their indicator trends, are brought out in succeeding paragraphs. Port:

This is the largest constituent of infrastructure in the maritime domain. Port is not an unitary entity but in-fact houses many sub industries, enterprises and providers of services such as stevedores, road and rail freight forwarders, warehouse operators, container terminal operators, container repairers, custom agents, dockworkers, ship chandlers, bankers, lawyers etc. The port infrastructure not only supports and stimulates shipping industry but also ship building industry, ship repair activity, ship breaking industry, maritime machinery and equipment industry, dredging and offshore industry as well as fishing and aqua culture industry.

Ports provide the link between land and the sea thereby enabling the passage of trade. To ensure a healthy state of trade, a port needs to be productive. The productivity of a port is measured in terms of a set of key performance indicators. In brief, the performance of a port is dependent upon the speed with which a vessel can leave after entering the port, the speed at which cargo is handled (loading or unlading) and the duration that cargo stays in port prior to shipment or post discharge. Although there has been an increase in productivity in the recent years, the performance of Indian ports does not at all compare favorably with the efficiency of other ports of the world. I will revert to this shortly.

India currently has 13 major ports which are owned, operated and administered by the Central Government. The 200 odd non-major ports fall under the ambit of state governments and private players. After independence, the large ports were located in major coastal cities for reasons of their proximity to the industrial complexes, connectivity was not a priority criterion at that stage and the major ports handled most of the traffic. With the promotion of private investment in the port sector as a part of the liberalization process, things began to change rapidly. Today, the major ports account for 70% of the traffic but the gap between the cargo volumes handled by major ports and minor ports has been narrowing fast, with the latter's share ‘skyrocketing' in the last decade.

The following chart shows the amount of cargo handled by various ports during the year 2011-12:



The existing port and marine facilities in India are afflicted with multiple issues such as lack of capacities, poor hinterland connection, limited water depth, old and inefficient cargo handling system etc. Consequently, the average turnaround time for ships at the major ports in India is 3.79 days as compared to 13 hours at Hong Kong port and 16.5 hours at Colombo. The latest economic survey of the Government of India shows that investment of the order of Rs 1.5 lakh crore is required for capacity augmentation and efficiency improvement in the country's port sector in the next five years, of which a major chunk is expected to come from the public-private partnership. Government records show that in the first quarter of this fiscal (April-June 2012), there was an increase of 4.8% in cargo traffic to 193 million tonnes (MT) at major ports compared to 184 MT during the corresponding period last fiscal while three major ports viz. Chennai, Mumbai and Mormugao registered a negative growth.

India needs to make effort to create more efficiency in cargo handling at the major ports and build high speed rail corridors connecting ports and major industrial areas. India should also take advantage of its extensive river systems and long coastline to develop inland waterways and coastal shipping.

Historically, ports on the country’s west coast handle at least twice the container traffic compared to those on the east coast. This trend is expected to change as India’s trade with Asian nations is growing faster than that with the western nations. This is attributable to the macroeconomic problems of Europe and the US and also to India’s look-east policy which has significantly increased the trade with the Asian countries in the recent times. According to a report by the consulting firm KPMG, western ports’ share of capacity is estimated to drop to 66% in 2014 compared to 77% in fiscal 2010 while the share of eastern ports will rise correspondingly.

The government has recently announced plans to build two major ports, one on each coast, with sufficient draught to berth large vessels. A robust inland and coastal shipping route connected to these ports should be developed so that manufacturing units can be set up near the berthing facilities adjoining these routes. In fact, there is need for a fundamental change in the outlook. It needs to recognize ports as a complex set of functions creating more job opportunities and economies of scale; and no longer view them in an isolated manner, like a series of infrastructures and real estate. Shipping:

This is the most operational constituent of maritime infrastructure. By the end of 2010, India had a fleet strength of 1040 vessels with gross registered tonnage (GRT) of 10.16 million, compared with fleet strength of 850 vessels adding up to 9 million GRT three years earlier. It is noteworthy that 67% of the number of vessels, representing 10% of tonnage is engaged in coastal trade and the remainder i.e. 33% of the registered vessels representing 90% of tonnage is deployed for overseas trade.

An analysis of the fleet classified by the type of vessels in 2010 indicates that the maximum number of vessels i.e. 540 or 19% representing 10% of tonnage were Dry Cargo Liners followed by oil tankers which were 154 or 6.5% representing 58% of tonnage. The change in the composition of Indian tonnage in terms of type of vessels in the last decade (2001 through 2010) is presented in the figure below:



In the recent years, there has been a massive growth in LNG trade globally. The growth is mainly due to the energy demands of the emerging economies, particularly India and China, and due to the fact that LNG is relatively safe and environmentally friendly energy component. However, LNG vessels are very expensive to own e.g. a 135,000 cubic meters LNG vessel costs at least US $200 million in the international market. For this reason, the Shipping Corporation of India has adopted the joint venture route for the two LNG vessels that it owns. The LNG is offloaded from the ships at the terminal and then it carries through a network of pipelines to various locations. The following map shows India’s crude oil and pipelines (existing as well as the planned ones):



Shipbuilding:

Shipbuilding industry contributes comprehensively to the nation’s economyas a catalyst for overall industrial growth due to spin offs to other industries including steel, engineering equipment, port infrastructure, trade and shipping services, development of the coastal area and inherently builds up infrastructure like road-rail connectivity. Shipbuilding is a technologically complex and a labor intensive industry. In the second half of the twentieth century, Japan and South Korea built up their shipbuilding industry and led the global activity in this field which helped them leverage the economic growth of the 1980s and 1990s. Today, China has moved ahead of South Korea to become the world’s leading shipbuilder. In 2011, China delivered 19.3 million Compensated Gross Tonnage (CGT) as against South Korea’s 16.1 million CGT.

The Indian commercial shipbuilding depends mainly upon 28 shipyards of which 8 are in the public sector and 20 in the private sector. The current aggregate shipbuilding capacity of the nation is about 500,000 Dead Weight Tons (DWT). Shipbuilding turnover for private and public sector shipyards, excluding defence shipyards, has grown from about Rs. 440 crore in 2001-02 to about Rs. 6,200 crore in 2010-11.

India’s share in the global shipbuilding market rose from about 0.2% in the 1990s to about 1.1% in 2006-07. This unprecedented growth was a direct derivative of a scheme implemented by the Central government between the years 2002 and 2007. The scheme offered shipyards a 30% subsidy on the bid price for the construction of a merchant vessel with minimum length of 80 meters for the domestic orders, while for export orders ships of all types and capacities were eligible for the subsidy. However, after the withdrawal of subsidy in 2007, our share in the world market has again gone down to about 0.2%. Last year, the NMF and CII had jointly organized a National Seminar on Shipbuilding at Kochi. Two key recommendations of the Seminar were for the Government of India to designate shipbuilding as a strategic industry and to set a National Task Force of qualified members from all stake holders to draw up an implementable action plan. The government introduced another mechanism last year to rejuvenate the shipbuilding industry wherein capital goods used in shipbuilding are tariff protected while the import of ships itself bear no such protection.

Faced with the lack of firm incentives from the Government, and the global economic slowdown that contributed towards dwindling orders, Indian shipbuilding industry is relying on defence deals to tide over the crisis. Currently, it is the defense deals that are keeping India’s shipyards busy. Now that Indian Navy has decided to indigenize most of its technologies, 80% of its warships are being built within the country itself. Specifically, India's four defense public sector shipyards viz. Mumbai-based Mazagaon Docks Limited (MDL), Kolkata-based Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE), Goa-based Goa Shipyard Limited (GSL) and Visakhapatnam-based Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL), which is the latest entrant in governmental warship building in the country; are building a total of 61 warships and vessels for the maritime forces of the country. As these defense shipyards are now overloaded and their human resources & infrastructure are inadequate to deliver on the expectations, the government has allowed private shipbuilders to join the country’s warship making process. Recently MDL has entered two joint ventures with private shipbuilders, with Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company for frigates and L&T for submarines. MDL has 14 warships on order including the six Project-75 Scorpene submarines. It is also constructing a Project-17 frigate of the Shivalik class, three Project-15A Kolkata class and follow-on four Project-15B destroyers, all for the Indian Navy. Inland Water Trade:

Inland water transport offers one of the cheapest modes of transportation as one litre of fuel moves 24 tonne km by road, 85 tonne km by rail and 105 tonne km by inland water transport. India has navigable inland waterways of around 15,500 km. Therefore, there is every reason to promote inland waterways which will also create the demand for a large number of cargo as well as passenger ferries to be built.

The development and regulation of the waterways which are declared as National Waterways are under the purview of Central Government, while the other waterways remain under the purview of the respective State Governments. The Ganga between Allahabad-Haldia (1620 km), the Sadiya-Dhubri stretch of river Brahmaputra (891 km) and Kollam-Kottapuram stretch of West Coast Canal along with Champakara and Udyogmandal Canals (205 km) in Kerala; have so far been declared as National Waterways and are being developed for navigation by the Inland Waterways Authority of India (IWAI). The Government has been taking various steps to develop Inland Water Transport (IWT) which, inter-alia, include maintenance of targeted depth and width in the navigational channels, aids for day and night navigation, fixed/floating terminals at specified locations for berthing and loading/unloading of vessels and intermodal connectivity at select locations. Besides these, Central Government also provides 100% Grants-in-aid to the States in the North-Eastern Region for development of IWT. Other major inland water-stretches are: Geonkhali-Charbatia stretch of East Coast Canal (217 km), Charbatia-Dhamra stretch of Matai River (39 km), Talcher- Dhamra stretch of Brahmani-Kharsua-Dhamra River system (265 km) along with Mangalgadi-Paradeep stretch of Mahanadi delta Rivers (67 km).

As per a report prepared by RITES Ltd. in the year 2009 titled “Total Transport System Study on Traffic Flows & Modal Costs”, the share of Inland Water Transport (IWT) in the total domestic transport during 2007-08 was 0.24% compared to 50.12% for the road and 36.06% for the rail sector in terms of tone km. Efforts are in hand to develop more commercially viable stretches under Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode with Viability Gap Funding (VGF) under India Infrastructure Project Development Fund (IIPDF) and PPP Pilot Project Initiative under the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Technical Assistance. The Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) has appointed a Transaction Advisor to facilitate this. The following map shows major inland waterways in India:



Rail-road Connectivity:

Connectivity of the port with major cities and industrial areas in the hinterland directly determines the efficiency of the maritime infrastructure. In the absence of policy co-ordination at the national level, this is the weakest link in the chain. Four lane road connectivity, double line rail connectivity, dedicated freight corridor etc. are individual projects progressing at their own default pace. This aspect will be commented upon later in the paper. The Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor covering 5 states to provide for easy movement for goods between the port of Mumbai and industrial clusters is shown on the map below:



Maritime Security

The notion of security covers in its ambit all aspects of existence starting with material and territorial ownership & goes all the way to values held close. It also includes prosperity, creature comforts, health, education, intellectual pursuits, peace, tranquility, contentment—the list could be endless. At the national level, history shows that the entire edifice of security stands on twin pillars of economic strength and military strength, both leveraging the technology of the day. National security is the most primary responsibility of every government and all organs of the State need to harmonize their endeavors to strengthen it. To be effective, security needs to be integrally woven ab initio into the national fabric. It is inherently bolstered by the visible signs of strength and by the perceived seriousness & resolve to safeguard all that is held dear- be it wealth or ideology and everything in between.

Historically, law of the jungle prevailed at sea much longer that it did on land. But that related largely to “piracy” or robbery, which essentially took place in close proximity of land and not on the high seas. Coastal state governments, therefore, dealt with these in co-ordination with their neighboring states. In modern times, however, maritime domain has also become a natural habitat for the non-state actors with ideological, political or religious persuasions that differ from those of the organized civil society. The sharp upturn in instances of sea-piracy and sea-jacking of merchant ships particularly in the vicinity of the Horn of Africa in the recent years has shown the absolute vulnerability of legitimate mercantile marine activity. Further, tentacles of terrorism have stretched out to sea where they are sustained by the drugs cartel and illegal arm dealers’ mafia. The small arms, whose annual trade was estimated to be worth more than US $7 billion in 2011, kill at least 300,000 people every year. Gun-running by the sea is by far the safest means of transferring arms & ammunition around the world, while drug trafficking is the most lucrative. There is a symbiotic relationship between the two and it is impossible to control one without controlling the other. Components for the ‘dirty bomb’, which uses conventional explosives to dispense radioactive material, can be mustered from the open market without much difficulty and experts believe that assembling it is well within the technical capabilities of at least some terrorist groups. It is apprehended that the next escalation in terrorism from the sea could be an attack with a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear device delivered by a container or a ship to cause panic, chaos & economic dislocation in a financial hub or a port city. Misuse of the seas as a medium for transporting terror across the international boundaries, was amply demonstrated during the 26/11 carnage at Mumbai. It would be reasonable to infer that the potential for the lawless and for the law-unto-themselves, to wreak havoc from the sea on to the law-abiding, is at least as much if not a lot more than from terra firma.

India has invested heavily in offshore oil & gas exploration and is also seeking to leverage fully the economic advantage of her massive EEZ. Large quantity of rare earth metals and minerals are lying on the deep seabed and the nation will need to fully avail of the nature’s endowment of these resources. Even as the nation plans to commence full scope commercial exploitation of her oceanic resources, the security dimension will need to be fully factored in.

Maritime security is an integral part of a nation’s overall security calculus. It includes two distinct but very closely interrelated aspects viz. providing security out at sea and securing the land against the threat emanating from the sea. The former entails seaward deployment of maritime military capability whereas the latter additionally requires better infrastructure, coordination, technological modernization of equipment and training of forces. There are sixteen agencies with overlapping jurisdictions that play their respective roles in movement of men and material across waterfronts and these include customs, immigration, medical etc. The security agencies need to ensure that there are no gaps left for the lawless to hold the state to ransom. This brings police, coast guard and the navy in to play.

Coordination

All above put together, brings out that the maritime dimension needs to be factored in as an integral part of a nation’s overall economic growth. It also brings out the need for a platform at which different stakeholders would come together and co-ordinate all aspects of sea-borne commercial activity, which end-to-end connects all major vehicles and instruments of trade through ports, railways, aviation, road and telecommunications. For example, the Jawaharlal Nehru Port at Navi Mumbai or Vallarpadam Container terminal needed to be supported by road & rail links for smooth transportation of goods to hinterland. Likewise, the security implications needed to be taken into account before developing the deep water terminals in Gulf of Kuchch from where crude oil is pumped to the refineries in north India from Mathura to Panipat. Further, there is need for single point operational responsibility to be assigned. At the same time, a state level mechanism for coordination and monitoring also need to be in place because many segments of the projects actually fall within their domain. This would not only harmonize and optimize all effects but would also reduce the response time as well as the cost of aggregating the instruments that would achieve the desired effects.

The nation had constituted a permanent statutory body viz. the National Shipping Board (NSB) in 1959 to advise the government on matters related to shipping and development thereof. Over the years it has played a useful role in addressing many issues related to shipping and in evolution of the National Shipping Policy. Given its stature and membership, the NSB could have achieved spectacular successes by making visionary recommendations to the Government at the policy level. Hemmed in by the secretariat provided by the Directorate General of Shipping, NSB has consistently delivered far below its own potential. I had personally taken up at its consecutive meetings during 1996-98, the imperative need for national level coordination among different agencies for maritime infrastructure development. Specific recommendations were made for adoption of measures across the spectrum of activities ashore as well as seawards - separately for India’s territorial waters and for the EEZ so as to enhance maritime security. To their credit, successive Chairmen of the NSB permitted me to raise and expound on the issue. But the Secretariat, with equal resolve, ensured that the Minutes were maintained completely innocent of the actual discussions despite written record of statements having been formally sent to them. The key recommendation was that, for the nation’s economic and security interests to be best served, there was a need to take a comprehensive view and coordinate diverse maritime development activities. In the absence of an agency with the requisite mandate, perhaps the Planning Commission could do it but a duly constituted overarching body was required in the long run. Subsequently, Naval Headquarters took up a proposal to constitute what came to be known at different stages as the National Maritime Commission, National Maritime Board etc. By early 2004 it appeared at the Cabinet Secretary’s meeting that the proposal was about to be approved. But the General Elections and dislodging of the NDA Govt. froze it all in its tracks. It was taken up once again by the Naval Headquarters in a new avatar as National Security Advisory Board etc. I also wrote to the National Security Advisor soon after the 26/11 outrage, once again bringing out the imperative for such a body as would comprehensively monitor the maritime security aspects. To date nothing has been heard on this subject from the Government. And, just to clarify, ideological persuasions of the ruling coalition had nothing to do with it. The issue of an ocean commission by any name, simply, has not been weighty enough to engage the political attention and the bureaucracy has seen no gains for itself from it.

Recently, the government did unveil a monitoring mechanism to look into the improvement and the performance of ministries and agencies for infrastructure projects, including that related to the maritime domain. The proposal for a Maritime Commission to co-ordinate development of and embedding security element in all maritime infrastructure is, however, at a different plane altogether.

Conclusion

To transport India’s maritime sector to commanding heights and to deliver India’s trade interests in an efficient, economical and secure manner; the Government has drawn up a national maritime development program, known as Maritime Agenda 2010-2020 last year. As per this, the Government plans to invest around Rupees 5 lakh crores, or US $100 billion, during the next ten years for up-gradation and modernization of the country’s maritime infrastructure to bring it all in line with the international standards. The investment also envisages increasing India's share in the global shipbuilding industry to 5% from 1% of 2007 and raise Indian companies' share in the global cargo tonnage to at least 9% from 6%-7%. The plans also aims to augment the country's overall port capacity from the current 1 billion tons to 3.5 billion tons over the next 10 years. Improving maritime infrastructure will also cut the cost and time for domestic container traffic thereby boosting inland trade.

As India grows to become one of the major economies in the world, maritime infrastructure will increasingly play the catalyst’s role. International trade holds the key to the nation’s economic growth and maritime infrastructure provides the backbone for it. The global experience all along history has been that the elements that ensure security should be built integrally into any system ab initio. It is ironical that all the naysayers and alarmists who protest against investment of time, effort and funding for security measures, are the first ones to bay for blood whenever an incident comes to light. But as the sole guarantor of national security, it is the Government’s responsibility to ensure that the maritime infrastructure development also contributes its utmost towards economic well being and growth of the nation. This would be possible only if an apex body is constituted to comprehensively plan and monitor the entirety of the maritime development plan with full scope security elements embedded therein. This is, thus, not only an economic imperative but indeed the only secure way ahead.

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*As adapted from the presentation made on 08 Aug 12 by the author at a Seminar organized by the Observer Research Foundation on "Enhancing India's Maritime Capacity.
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